November Reign

The bulls controlled the majority of price action in the month of November and they don't seem ready to relinquish control to the bears as December gets underway. Today's action saw prices once again climb to the top of the recent range and turn back lower late in the session. The 5 day moving average remains relatively flat...

Taking a look at fib retracements, the S&P may make a run for 1121 and the 50% line...

The /ES channel may be set for another test of the 75% line and that move would match up well with the touch of 1121 described above...

A little good news for the bears, the $CPC has moved back down to a neutral reading after the strength the past two days...

I'm always discussing the 5 day moving average (65) on the 30 day, 30 minute chart and here's an example of why I favor this particular average on this specific time frame. Looking at the GLD chart below, a purchase at the end of October around $102.50, as prices moved back above the 5dma, would have allowed a trader to capture the entire trend and still be positioned long. Note the support from the moving average along the way...

Click Any Chart To Enlarge

For better or for worse, my pain tolerance is directly correlated to my strength of conviction. Given that, my portfolio remains heavily weighted to the short side and I'm still feeling rather numb to it all. 'Nuff said!? When/if that changes, you'll be the first to know. To be honest, don't overlook the importance of position sizing. It's a proper (or comfortable) allocation that allows me to sleep like a baby... even when the futures are ripping higher against me!